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Are Armenian And Azerbaijani Societies Ready For Peaceful Coexistence
2026-01-19
The question of whether Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are ready for peaceful coexistence today goes far beyond diplomatic negotiations and the formal signing of documents. The absence of war does not yet mean the presence of a sustainable peace. True peace is the readiness of societies to accept a new reality, abandon the logic of permanent confrontation, and learn to coexist in the same region without mutual hostility and phobias.
At the level of official state policy, recent years have seen a shift toward pragmatism. Baku and Yerevan are gradually coming to the understanding that continued confrontation brings neither political nor economic dividends. Negotiations on a peace treaty, discussions of borders, transport communications, and regional security all indicate an effort by the political elites to lock in the results of the conflict and move toward a more rational model of relations. However, the most difficult and decisive question is whether this logic is shared by societies on both sides of the border.
For Azerbaijani society, the key turning point has been the restoration of territorial integrity. Victory in the war closed the Karabakh issue for Baku and created a sense of the completion of a certain historical stage that Azerbaijan does not intend to revisit. This has produced an environment in which there is no public demand for continuing confrontation, and this demand is now at its lowest level in the past five years. At the same time, a pragmatic interest in stability, the economic development of the liberated territories, and the transformation of the region into a space for transit, investment, and cooperation is becoming increasingly visible. This does not mean complacency or a loss of vigilance. Azerbaijani society remains highly sensitive to security issues and to how its neighbors perceive the postwar realities. Peace is the most desirable scenario for Azerbaijan, but only as long as it does not call into question the realities established after the 2020 war.
Armenian society finds itself in a far more complex psychological and political situation. The loss of control over the occupied territories was not only a geopolitical defeat but also a deep collective trauma caused by the collapse of ideological myths. A conflict that lasted for decades created generations for whom the occupied territories of a neighboring country had become an inseparable part of Armenia, and for these generations it is particularly difficult to come to terms with the irreversible changes that have taken place.
Within Armenia, different moods coexist: fatigue from war and isolation, and an awareness of the need for peaceful coexistence on the one hand, and latent revanchist expectations on the other. These sentiments are fueled by the revanchist opposition and actors in the media sphere. The continued escalation of nationalist propaganda makes public attitudes toward peace unstable and prone to internal fluctuations.
It should not be forgotten that the societies of both countries were formed for decades under conditions of conflict. The image of the “enemy” was reinforced through education systems, the media, and political rhetoric. In Armenia, this process existed even before the Karabakh conflict began, meaning that Armenian society was already driven by groundless hostility and claims toward its neighbor even in Soviet times.
In Azerbaijan, by contrast, no propaganda effort was required to form a hostile image of Armenia, because the realities themselves were sufficient: ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis, military aggression, occupation, and its consequences. No propaganda could have made the image of the neighbor more repulsive than these realities already did. The liberation of the territories and the restoration of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty made it possible to soften these attitudes. As a result, Azerbaijani society, in principle, does not feel discomfort when hearing its authorities speak about peace with Armenia. At the same time, the memory of the crimes committed during the occupation remains alive in society, and this is an objective circumstance not dependent on propaganda.
Under such conditions, it would be unrealistic to expect a rapid transition to mutual trust. A peace treaty may be signed relatively quickly, but social reconciliation is a long process measured in years, and sometimes in generations. That is why practical steps aimed at bringing the two societies closer together acquire special importance.
In 2025, concrete actions were taken that went beyond declarations and acquired real, practical substance. One of these steps was the establishment of economic contacts. In 2025, Azerbaijan for the first time in decades carried out commercial deliveries of petroleum products to Armenia. These included gasoline and diesel fuel shipped by rail through Georgia in December. Recently, another train carrying Azerbaijani fuel was sent to Armenia. These supplies have not only economic but also strong symbolic.
Info: caspianpost.com