How does Georgia use the economic opportunity of the Middle Corridor in the new geopolitical situation?

In order to fully answer how effectively Georgia uses the economic opportunity of the Middle Corridor, the "Transport Corridor Research Center" analyzed the dynamics of shipments of 15 traffic flows along the corridor before the Russia-Ukraine confrontation and in the following years 2022-2023. The analysis covered how the cargo flows carried and processed on the railways of Georgia, transit highways, ports and pipelines.

As a result of the research, it was revealed that compared to the base year 2021, after the increase in Georgian railway shipments in 2022, there is an 8% decrease in 2023, as well as an 11% decrease in transit shipments, and a decrease in container shipments in the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars direction. Everything indicates that the Georgian Railways could not adequately ensure the specific task of attracting cargo flows from alternative corridors.

The analysis of transit road transport through Georgia reveals that compared to 2021, in 2022 - after a 50% increase, the growth of transit road transport is only a negligible 5%. First of all, it indicates that in international road shipments, cargoes are redistributed to other alternative corridors or returned to previously proven routes.

In the ports of Georgia, in 2022-2023, there are practically no growth indicators of processed cargo. It is separated in the Batumi port, where there is a 25% drop in cargo turnover and a 20% drop in oil flow.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is practically empty; the capacity of the mentioned highway is only 10-15% utilized.

The volume of oil flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is practically not increasing.

In the operation of the transport corridor, two growing cargo flows can be distinguished, first of all, container cargo in Poti port, which has increased by 65% ​​in 2023 compared to 2022. Practically, the container capacity of Poti harbor is working at its peak and requires the expansion of the infrastructure.

The second growing parameter is an 80% increase in TITR cargoes on the Trans-Caspian international transport route, which essentially covers the entire corridor from China to the ports of Georgia. Despite the 80% increase, the 2.7 million tons recorded in 2023 is not a high indicator, and it should be taken into account that a significant part of the mentioned cargo flow does not reach the ports of Georgia.

As a conclusion - in the Georgian section of the corridor, despite the presence of expected cargo flows, the volumes of shipments are practically decreasing on the main transit arteries and in the harbors. Georgian Railways appears as an inflexible entity that is less oriented to the current processes in the transport market. As a whole, the corridor passing through Georgia, in the new geopolitical situation, cannot use its economic potential.