Kazakh Oil in the Trans-Caspian Corridor

"Transport Corridor Research Center" on its page focused on the problems of attracting dry cargo from Kazakhstan. In today's post, we want to analyze the prospects for the transfer of Kazakh oil through the Trans-Caspian corridor.

It is important to note the decision of the President of Kazakhstan - on the diversification of oil routes, on the transfer of 20 million tons of Kazakhstan's oil exports, including those on the Caspian Sea, through the ports of Aktau and Kurik.

What specific steps have been taken and what is planned to be done additionally?

On the basis of the agreement signed at the government level of Kazakhstan - Azerbaijan, a decision has been made to gradually increase the transportation of Kazakh oil using the Georgian corridor through the ports of Aktau and Kurik.

From 2023, the shipment of 3 million tons of Kazakh oil in the Aktau-Baku direction has been resumed, of which 1.5 million tons will be transported through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceykhani pipeline, 1.5 million tons - by rail, using the Batumi harbor.

In the future (2025-2030), according to the promise of the President of Kazakhstan, the volumes will increase to 20 million tons, of this volume, 5 million tons will be transported by railway in the direction of Baku - Batumi, 5 million tons - Baku – Supsa pipeline, 5 million tons - Baku - Tbilisi - Jeikhan pipeline. , remaining - 5 million tons - using the SWOP system in the direction of the port of Iran.

The Trans-Caspian pipeline has limitations in terms of the quality of oil transportation, the Azeri Light quality of Azeri oil, due to its low paraffin content, is more in demand in the oil market compared to the Kazakh one (it is 3-4 dollars more expensive per barrel), from this point of view, Azerbaijan is less interested in mixing Kazakh oil into the pipeline. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have reached an agreement at the political level on the transportation of Kazakh oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeikhan pipeline.

There are certain doubts regarding the transportation of Kazakh oil through the Baku-Supsa pipeline, because the pipeline is stopped for the day as a result of hostilities, nevertheless, under the conditions of the pipeline's operation, Azerbaijan has the requirement to fully absorb the pipeline's capacity of 7 million tons. In addition, the recent negotiations with Kazakhstan clearly showed that the parties are coming to an agreement. Additionally, it is considered to use both pipelines separately.

Azerbaijan demands 10-year guaranteed supply in case of Kazakh oil shutdown;

The principle of parity - with the agreement signed between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, parity has been reached at 50/50, on the basis of which, on the Caspian Sea, half of the volume of oil transportation will be served by the Azerbaijani fleet, and half by the Kazakh fleet. Achieving such parity has been a problem for the past 20 years.

In the conditions of availability of guaranteed volumes from the Kazakhstan side, it is planned to connect from the Tengiz deposit to Kurik and Aktau harbors with the Eskene - Kurik pipeline. We are talking about the resuscitation of the pipeline project on the territory of Kazakhstan.

The transfer of 20 million tons of oil is associated with significant logistical difficulties, because oil from the Atyrau oil field must be delivered by rail to the reservoirs of the Aktau port, loaded into the reservoirs, from the reservoir to the berth and reloaded into tankers, similarly from the berth in Baku. to be unloaded in the reservoirs and further from the reservoirs, in wagons in the direction of Batumi or in the Baku-Tbilisi- Jeikhan pipeline.

Under the conditions of the construction of the Eskene - Kurik pipeline, logistical costs will be significantly reduced, from this point of view the mentioned project is considered promising. Due to these difficulties, the transfer of Kazakh oil takes 8-10 years.

Transportation Corridor Research Center