Logistical Capabilities of the Caspian and Central Asian Regions

2026-05-02

The transit network in the Caspian region and Central Asia is currently facing serious challenges as growing trade flows exceed the functional capacity of existing pipelines, railways and maritime hubs. In this changing environment, the Trans-Caspian international transport route – often referred to as the “middle corridor” – is becoming an increasingly important alternative for transporting goods between Asian and European markets.

At a recent summit in the Azerbaijani capital, energy and transport leaders noted that the region is entering a more volatile era. They observed that the scale of trade turnover is testing the resilience and capacity of the infrastructure connecting East and West. At a regional forum on April 23-24, delegates described a system that is still functioning, but is overburdened. Ports and railways are particularly vulnerable to financial constraints and operational disruptions, they said.

Despite growing concerns about resource constraints, some analysts believe the region is in a strong starting position. Askar Ismailov, advisor for Central Asia at the Global Gas Center, stressed that the basic transport infrastructure to meet initial demand is already in place.

He said that large-scale capital spending is not necessary to increase the system’s capacity.

In the discussion in Baku, Ismailov spoke not only about physical infrastructure but also about the importance of security of supply. He stressed that the global order has fundamentally changed and no single route can be considered permanently secure. He argued that, given the current international situation, diversification and quantitative growth of existing transit routes is the only way to ensure a stable supply of resources.

The participants in the discussion also spoke about the fact that a significant part of the region’s export structure is still tied to a limited number of channels. For example, Kazakhstan remains dependent on the Caspian pipeline consortium through Russia, without which it cannot deliver a large part of its production to the Black Sea. Another challenge is that Azerbaijani oil exports are mainly carried out through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Sufs systems.

John Patterson, a member of the British Chamber of Commerce in Azerbaijan, said that the main challenge now is the pace of selecting and creating new transit routes. He drew attention to the expected growth in global demand for energy resources, which requires an urgent expansion of the pipeline network. Referring to the recent fluctuations in the prices of Brent crude oil and liquefied natural gas, Patterson warned the high-ranking officials in the hall that if transit problems are not urgently resolved, the current market fluctuations will become a harbinger of wider economic challenges.

The panelists also discussed how connectivity can be a tool for strategic influence. In their assessment, in an era of reshaping global supply chains, the ability of countries to efficiently transport goods and energy has become a serious strategic asset. Patterson noted that by improving various transport links by the countries of the Middle Corridor - whether by road, rail or pipeline - the international market will be able to effectively bypass traditional maritime bottlenecks, such as the current Strait of Hormuz.

It is worth noting that Azerbaijan is increasingly seen as a key point in this strategy. Since Baku already has established pipeline connections to Western markets, it has the necessary technical knowledge and experience to help the countries of Central Asia transport natural resources. It is worth noting that this role is not limited to the energy sector; During the discussion, Patterson suggested that everything from raw materials to finished goods could use this corridor to reach the European Union, effectively connecting major manufacturing zones with consumer markets.

The speakers highlighted the growing dynamism that is being observed in the Middle Corridor. They assessed that interest in the Middle Corridor is growing sharply against the backdrop of the reconfiguration of global logistics routes. This route, which connects China with the South Caucasus and Europe via the Caspian Sea, is becoming a vital alternative to trade routes that are currently disrupted by geopolitical instability.

It is worth noting that the increase in traffic on this route is already noticeable in its rail and maritime segments. That is why, in order to increase cargo throughput, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is actively starting the process of expansion. A large-scale increase in cargo flows is also recorded in the ports of the Caspian and Black Seas. It is also noteworthy that the demand for capacity from Azerbaijani terminals to the ports of Kazakhstan, including Aktau and Kuryk, often exceeds the pace of ongoing modernization projects.

It is also noteworthy that against the background of increasing logistical pressure, the leaders of the region have actively begun to reconsider several projects that were suspended long ago.

The head of Kazakhstan’s “Oil Council,” Asylbek Jakiyev, stressed that there is potential for resuming talks on a special pipeline running along the bottom of the Caspian Sea, and that this route could directly connect to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan network. In his speech, Jakiyev did not deny that such an initiative would require high-level diplomatic coordination and efforts from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, but noted that such an opportunity should not be missed.

Beyond discussing logistical possibilities, the high-level leaders and experts also discussed natural and regulatory factors that could hinder the process. One of the factors cited was the decline in the Caspian Sea, which has already posed a direct threat to the functioning of ports and requires expensive dredging. As it turns out, the current situation has forced many shipping companies to choose smaller vessels when purchasing ships, as it is becoming increasingly difficult for deep-draft tankers to enter ports.

The leaders participating in the discussion agreed that the Caspian and Central Asian corridor has begun to transform from a static transit zone into a rapidly changing, but high-risk route in the past few years. According to their conclusion, those who prioritize resilience and multi-directional connectivity will win in this situation.

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