Arctic Militarization and Maritime Trade

Global climate change in the Arctic region has a serious impact on modern international relations. The sharp decrease in the amount of ice in the “Upper North” and technological development create favorable conditions for the extraction and use of mineral and energy resources in this region. Massive melting of ice will make it possible to open trans-Arctic shipping lines, which will fundamentally change the existing model of global transportation. The sharp climate change in the North contains enormous potential for the development of this region and is a prerequisite for its economic exploitation. This is already reflected in the open interest of large companies in the region.

The importance of the region is also growing in terms of security. Russia and the United States are strengthening military infrastructure and means of controlling resources in the Arctic. Despite the fact that China is not an Arctic country, it is actively trying to expand its interests in the region. This region may also become the epicenter of future military and political confrontation.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Arctic has been seen as a politically neutral zone, characterized by peaceful international scientific cooperation. But as Arctic ice melts and more land and sea become accessible, routes for resource extraction and maritime trade are opening up, making it increasingly attractive to rival global powers. Some observers question its stability.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is seen as a turning point in Arctic relations. At the time of the war, Russia chaired the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that promotes cooperation among Arctic nations and covers a range of issues. The forum focuses on “sustainable development and environmental protection of the Arctic.” The council deliberately does not address security issues.

The Arctic Council was established on 19 September 1996, when the governments of Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the United States signed the Ottawa Declaration. The establishment of the Arctic Council was preceded by the Arctic Environmental Strategy (June 1991), a declaration on the protection of the Arctic environment.

In 2022, seven of the eight members of the Arctic Council, all except Russia, urgently decided to boycott the meeting due to the war and suspended meetings. It only met in 2023 to hand over the chairmanship to Norway. In 2024, Russia suspended its annual payments to the organization until the full activities of the Council were resumed with the participation of all members.

Russia is one of the largest military powers in the Arctic. The Kremlin claims the largest part of the region, controlling about 50% of the Arctic Ocean’s coastline.

Russia has been investing in and upgrading its Soviet-era facilities. Chatham House, a UK think tank, says this is defensive in nature and that the Kremlin opposes the idea of ​​starting a conflict in the Arctic. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Moscow is increasingly “pursuing its economic ambitions, safeguarding its second-strike nuclear capabilities, and projecting power into the central Arctic, the Bering Sea, and the North Atlantic.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly changed the geopolitics of the Arctic. The war has affected the security guarantees of two neutral countries. In particular, as a result of Russia’s actions, the Arctic countries of Finland and Sweden have become members of the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO has also increased its influence in the Arctic. The US Department of Defense says it is monitoring developments and improving surveillance and early warning systems in the vast region to “ensure the Arctic does not become a strategic blind spot.” Data published by Foreign Policy shows that Norway has 13 Arctic bases in Europe, including a new addition, Camp Viking, a training ground for Britain’s Royal Marines Commandos. The map shows that the US has nine bases in Alaska, in addition to bases in Greenland and Iceland. After US President Donald Trump expressed his desire to buy the island of Greenland, Washington has said it will not expand the current US military bases there.

The military bases on the map include naval, air force and ground forces.

Military and geopolitical tensions in the Arctic are increasing as countries seek to gain strategic advantages.

The Arctic is a geopolitical opportunity that includes a number of alternative trade routes. In addition to NATO member states and Russia, China is also showing growing interest in the region and is investing in infrastructure projects to gain influence.

The development of polar waters will better connect China with Europe and the Americas through additional routes. Compared to current trade routes, the Polar Sea Route offers Beijing a safer alternative. For example, the Strait of Malacca, which is one of the nodes of the Maritime Silk Road, is considered the most dangerous sea route in the world due to the high rate of piracy. In addition, the Polar Silk Road will shorten the distance from China to Europe by 40% and significantly reduce costs. Therefore, for Beijing, the development of the Northern Sea Route is of great benefit for the future development of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

China’s growing involvement adds further complexity to the security dynamics of the Arctic. Although it is primarily focused on economic investment and scientific research with its “Polar Silk Road” idea, its growing interest in the region is not very pleasant for other major players, as China’s involvement and declared interests add more complexity to the Arctic security dynamics.

Russia’s growing influence in the Arctic, the emergence of China’s naval forces, and the construction of its first icebreakers raise many questions in the West regarding the maintenance of security in the region and the prevention of potential conflicts. Such a security dynamic in the Arctic has repeatedly become a subject of debate among Western allies. The US is most interested in demonstrating Russian aggression in the region and containing China’s “peaceful rise.” The melting of polar ice seems to be an irreversible phenomenon for now, at least in the near future. Therefore, NATO should develop a coherent strategy for the region that aims not only to combat climate change, but also to reduce the influence of hostile actors. In addition, NATO should effectively use the membership of Sweden and Finland to deter the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic region.

Adherence to the norms of international law, transparency of military activities and multilateral dialogue are crucial to maintaining stability in the region. These factors are important for reducing the risks of escalation and promoting long-term peace and cooperation in the Arctic.

Author: Manana Sekhniashvili

Mastsavlebeli.ge - March 7, 2025