Tbilisi, Baku and Yerevan mean the way from London to Bombay

The idea known as the "Trump route" has apparently raised uncertainty and questions, including - will Georgia lose its transit function?

The author of the article addresses the reader: Let us agree on one main condition at the very beginning, that connecting different realities requires courage. And taking this condition into account, let us reassess the Silk Road and its challenges.

As an initial summary, we would like to give the following assessment that Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany own important ports in the North Sea. The mentioned countries have a market economy system and their ports, as competitors in the common sea, serve the cargo turnover of large vessels. By competing with each other, they create a powerful economic region. Their ports do not divide anything. They offer manufacturers and consumers sophisticated financial and logistical services and a well-functioning transit infrastructure.

According to Belarusian Railways, on September 12, 2025, Poland completely closed its rail traffic with Belarus. This means that shipments from China to Europe via the Kazakhstan-Russia-Belarus double-track railway have been suspended. For years, transit shipments have been carried out along this highway, which accounted for about 3% of China's exports. The bulk of Chinese exports were carried out by sea.

The railway line through Poland has a capacity of 80-90 pairs of trains per day (freight and passenger). In reality, the number of transit container trains from China is about 20-30 trains per day in a given direction.

A container train has an average of 54 carriages, the length of which is about 700-900 meters. During the waiting period, one train occupies almost a kilometer of track. Several trains can be deployed at large railway stations. But if the number of such trains is in the tens, this will create serious problems for the movement of local trains. It is also known that the Chinese government provides significant subsidies for rail transportation, and often empty freight cars intended for reverse cargo accumulate at the Belarusian-Polish border crossings, which creates some kind of traffic jams.

The most important - the double-track railway line passing through Russia, is divided into three branches at the Belarusian-Polish border:

1. Kuznitsa Białostowska (Poland) - Bruzgi (Belarus);

2. Semyanovka (Poland) - Svisloch (Belarus);

3. Terespol (Poland) - Brest (Belarus).

Despite the presence of three branches of the Belarusian-Polish railway crossings in the transportation of trade cargo between Europe and China, there were problems with technical maintenance even before the war in Ukraine. Let's take into account that this only applies to 3% of Chinese cargo.

Now let's assume that after Poland closed the border, Chinese cargo shipments to Europe were redirected to the middle corridor. How could anyone imagine that the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars single-track railway could handle the volume of cargo that the three branch railways in Poland served?

In addition, it is worth considering that cargo from Russia to Europe moved through the railways and ports of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. On which political restrictions are currently imposed. Transit cargo also moved from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, which is impossible in wartime conditions.

Compared to the northern route of Muscovy, the middle corridor through the Caucasus is an accessible route for all of South and East Asia, the infrastructure of which is not yet ready.

Let us imagine that instead of (or in addition to) the three branches of the railways of the three Baltic countries and the Polish railways, transportation from Asia to Europe would be carried out along the following Caucasian routes:

Baku - Syunik - Nakhichevan Railway;

Baku - Gyumri - Kars Railway;

Baku - Tbilisi - Kars Railway;

Baku - Batumi - Trabzon Railway;

Baku - Tbilisi - Poti Railway;

Baku - Tbilisi - Sukhumi - Kerch Railway.

The listed railway lines would have corresponding freight and passenger transportation destinations. The question is to what extent the Caucasian railway branches would be functional and sufficient to provide logistics services for even 3% of Chinese exports.

Gyumri Dry Port and Akhalkalaki Logistics Center, together, are nodes of enormous logistical potential. Including for the South-West Corridor: India - Iran - Armenia - Georgia - European Union.

From the day Georgia becomes a member of the European Union, that is, it joins the free market space and has a market economy order, with independent exchanges, all transit routes will immediately be operational - TRACECA, CAREC, CASCA, CAMCA, LAPIS LAZULI, VIKINGROUTE...

Accordingly, the Caucasus will become a place of confrontation between the European Union with a GDP of 19 trillion dollars and the second economy of 19 trillion dollars - China. To which will be added trade caravans from the industries of Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Pakistan, the Arab world, Egypt and Indonesia to Europe.

Author: Zurab Maghradze